What Might a McCain Presidency Look Like?

Last month, John Fortier of the American Enterprise Institute asked an important question. How would John McCain govern?

He noted a few McCain character traits:

McCain’s governing style displays a healthy balance between loyal insiders and outside advice. McCain has attracted loyal long-term staffers, such as chief of staff and co-author of his best-selling books, Mark Salter, but he also seeks counsel from a wide range of advisers inside and outside his campaign...

This is important because one of the chief failings of the current administration, in my view, has been insularity. People from inside Bush World were given key posts, even when not suitable. Outsiders who were tapped really didn't wield real power. Compare that to Ronald Reagan who made his chief GOP rival's campaign manager his Chief of Staff. A good leader will reach out and hire the best people, regardless of their past affilations.

With McCain’s emphasis on fiscal responsibility, lower spending and cutting congressional pork, a McCain presidency would likely see vetoes of appropriations bills and budget showdowns with Democrats. On this front, McCain would probably find strong backing from his Republican colleagues, who while in the minority would support fiscal restraint wholeheartedly.

As a Republican President with a strong record of fiscal restraint dealing with a Democratic Congress, McCain would likely do a fairly good job keeping spending in line. That's a big advantage he's got in my view over Senator Obama, who likely will go along with Congressional spending wishes because he's got some ambitious plans of his own, e.g., health care.

Fortier surmises that McCain's record of bi-partisanship and independence from his own party's line means that he'd work better with a Democratic Congress than any of his GOP rivals would have, which I find to be a reasonable assertion.

What Might an Obama President Look Like?

In his Politico column Wednesday, American Enterprise Institute scholar John Fortier asked what an Obama Presidency might look like. Given the current trend back toward Obama in most of the polls, this is a question many may be pondering between election day and January 20th, 2009.

Specifically, Fortier considers what is likely to be the political dynamic in 2009 (a strongly Democratic, fairly unified Congress) in conjunction with Obama's political record to date.

Obama’s legislative career has been spent mostly in the minority (ed: thus making it harder to accomplish goals)...He has modest but bipartisan accomplishments (italics added)...[as a state Senator] he championed a measure to expand health care, state legislative ethics reform and an anti-racial profiling bill that won unanimous support. In the U.S. Senate he worked on anti-nuclear proliferation efforts with Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) and on government accountability measures with Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), a conservative stalwart.

In this regard, he is similar to Senator McCain. Whereas McCain is quick to rub his bi-partisanship in his party's eye, though, Obama does so in a lower key manner that doesn't ruffle his party's feathers, says Fortier.

Another key "tell" for Fortier is that the Obama campaign has been very professional. It's been cohesive, lacking the leaks and backbiting that mark many presdiential campaigns. This bodes well for a smooth executive branch under President Obama.

As a President with liberal majorities in both Houses of Congress, Obama won't need to work very hard to reach out to Republicans. In fact, his biggest critics may be some in his own party who feel he doesn't go far enough:

But Obama would face some difficulties. He has bipartisan instincts, but political circumstances point neither to him courting GOP lawmakers nor at Republicans reciprocating. His chief difficulty is raised expectations. An Obama win, combined with strong congressional gains in 2006 and 2008, would embolden Democratic activists to push for an ambitious agenda. But the cost and complexity of health care reform, continuing costs of keeping troops in Afghanistan and even Iraq, and the reality that only a few agenda items can be tackled in the first year may frustrate the base or perhaps cause Obama to push for too much, only to disappoint. Managed correctly, a plan that gets 75 percent of what Obama wants on health care or energy would be a major victory, even if some see it as unambitious.

This is something I have thought for a while. There's so much excitement around the Obama campaign, and so much expectation, that if he is seen as failing to deliver quickly on key promises such as bringing US troops home from Iraq, he may find his strongest supporters becoming his biggest critics.

Tomorrow, we'll look at Fortier's take on a McCain presidency.